"More About Spain"

Like I said some weeks back Spain needs about 400,000,000,000 Euros to recap the banks. A loan of 100,000,000,000 Euros has been promised. Three times that much is still needed, and not as a loan - unless it is a loan "in name only" - because Spain couldn't pay back that much money at 5% interest in a million years. Maybe the ECB (run by Mario Draghi, by the way; Mario Monti is prime minister of Italy) will just buy Spanish bonds and just never redeem them, just vaporize, incinerate, or put them in a drawer and forget them forever, etc. Spain needs cash to pay off loans, not loans to pay off loans. The ECB will intervene in Spanish bond markets for sure, now, with massive buys that will just murder the shorts, like driving the interest rates of Spanish bonds down from 7.5% to less than five percent long enough, a day or so, to kill the shorts, and then say they will do it again whenever they feel peckish. The message is "you might want to be careful, boys and girls". The Germans are listening now to European "reason" because Greece owes Germany Target2 funds of 692,000,000,000 Euro (which are part of German bank "assets"). As well Germany holds Greek, Spanish, and Italian debt in unknown amounts, probably over 5 trillion Euros, maybe two or three times that amount. Greece leaves the EU, Germany is out 692 Billion Euro in Target2 funds, plus whatever the Greek government owes, plus what all Greek private citizens owe. Call it a round Trillion Euro. A loss of this size would make every German bank, insurance company, and pension fund bankrupt. Throw in Spain and the loss would be something like 7 Trillion Euros. Add Italy and it would be maybe 17 Trillion Euros. The EU would explode into space.

"What's In Their Coffee on Wall Street?"

On 7/13/12, The Evansville Observer wrote: > Bear Trader > On the Squak on the Street this morn prior to the opening, Jim Cramer > commented on the announcement by JPMOrgan that their loss was 4.4 billion up > from two, that when one considered that the final net PLUS the losses was a > huge number if applied by the multiple, then the valuation of the stock was > much higher....huh? thus he was positive on the stock for the future. > Lets all not discount our losses and apply the multiple and then be wildly > positive hUH? what is the new math..or is it new meth? > > Bear Trader Answers: As I said earlier Wall Street is totally hot to Buy, Buy, Buy. I didn't use those words, exactly, as I recall. I recall saying they acted like manic bipolars off their meds. The problem is that the world central banks including the Federal Reserve have printed so much money since 2008 ($15 Trillion in 2008 and 2009, as much as the US GDP) that Wall Street is awash with cash, drowning in it, and the money is burning holes in every pocket in the financial world. Even JPMorgan-Chase is throwing money around like a coke head. Dimon even says their $5,000,000,000 trading loss don't mean nothing. Did you know that Greenberg of Bear Stearns bragged about his coke use to an underling once, and showed him his stash? About 60 or 100 grams, it appears, costing several thousand dollars. Who do you think bought, buys, all that coke up in Harlem? It is not local residents as they don't have enough money. It is easy to snort $1000 a day worth (assuming you have the cash). Too bad I can't borrow a few trillion at 0.5% and get 0.6% from soon maturing Treasuries. I would get, for each trillion dollars borrowed, ten basis points per year, or one billion dollars per year. Not bad for no work and no risk, eh? Just call

The Short Squeeze---Point, Counterpoint

The Question: On 7/5/12, The Evansville Observer wrote: > Bear Trader > Please review how the commodities spiked up prior to the 4th of July. Oil > spikes up 8 dollars in one day, coffee spikes from 1.65 to 1.80. > Question: This seems to defy the fundamentals. Was this just the program > guys trying to spook the shorts and force them to cover? What is your take > on it. > China is slowing....this should slow demand for oil...coffee is > aplenty....why why why The Answer: Date: Sunday, July 8, 2012, 2:53 AM I don't know, Observer. A short squeeze is as good an explanation as any. I think it was the HFT guys. Some sort of algorithmic interaction amongst the the machines, a bit like the Flash Crash, maybe. The machines can't dance together, they are just like assembly line robots, skilled humans must intervene when they start bumping each other. Maybe the algos were programed to anticipate a short squeeze last Tuesday. Robots are very damned dangerous to be around.